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Blueprint Intelligence / Research / Emerging-manager returns and the fundraising gap
Research
Higher average returns do not make a fundraise straightforward. Here is what the research shows, what may help explain it, and what remains an open question.
A return comparison and a fundraising decision answer different questions. White Paper I studies performance across 2,471 U.S. venture funds from 2000–2024. Emerging funds have higher group-average returns under the main definition. Explaining that pattern, or why an LP selects a particular manager, takes more than the group averages alone.
The paper offers a configuration argument: a strategy may work better when it fits the resources available to carry it out. Smaller deployment amounts can suit opportunities that would not meet a much larger fund’s needs. Limited reserves can shape follow-on choices. Ownership and team structure can affect incentives and attention. These are plausible explanations to investigate, not mechanisms isolated by an experiment. A smaller fund can also be under-resourced, and a larger one can be disciplined.
Use the research to ask how the investment plan fits the team and capital available. Do not treat emerging status as a quality label. Source: Colibrí Institute, Why Emerging Venture Capital Managers Matter (Moncada and Salas, 2026).
The comparisons vary by investment stage. The reported average IRRs are 17.2% versus 10.0% at early stage and 13.1% versus 9.7% for general or multi-stage funds, emerging first in each pair. At later stage the order reverses: 12.3% for emerging and 14.7% for established funds. The paper also finds a different relationship between average deployed capital per company and IRR for the two groups. These patterns support a more specific question about a manager’s strategy; they do not establish an optimal entry check or prove which resource caused the difference.
Fund size, track-record length and name recognition can make screening easier. Each may also exclude managers whose capabilities deserve a direct review. The paper discusses this tension, including emerging-manager programs that use an assets-under-management threshold. The useful diligence question is what the threshold stands for and whether the institution can assess that need more directly. The study does not establish every allocator’s motive or prove that following a familiar manager reduces returns.
The paper’s main definition combines structural characteristics with founding-team gender. It is not a measure of all forms of diversity, and a demographic-only definition produces different results. Keep those limits visible when discussing access to capital. Evaluate the individual team’s experience, attribution and resources rather than turning either identity or fund size into a shortcut. The paper also cites NexTier Consulting’s criticism of using assets under management as a proxy for a firm’s ability to manage operational and other business risks; that is a useful question to test through diligence, not a substitute for it.
Source check recorded: September 18, 2026 (claim-scope review).
The study and supplied tables support the research statements above. The September 2026 editorial review clarified descriptive findings and their limits; it did not change the paper, rerun the data or validate a fund’s future returns.
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